The decision to expand the FIFA World Cup from 32 to 48 teams has caused some complications in the tournament’s progression from the group stages to the knockouts.
The introduction of a round of 32 stage meant that in addition to the top two teams from each of the twelve groups, the eight best third-placed teams also reached the knockouts.
All eight third-placed teams will face a group winner in the first knockout round.
The Round of 32 matches will also not be fully completed until the third-placed teams in all groups have been determined.
Appendix C of the FIFA World Cup 2026 regulations provides a chart showing all combinations for the round of 32 at the end of the group stage.
According to this chart, there are 495 possible matchups for the eight top-ranked third-seeded teams in the round of 32. This is based on which group gets a third-seeded team in the knockout round. A change in the group combination would result in a different outcome in the round of 32 matches.
Let’s take the case of Germany, for example, which is confident of topping Group E. If the third-placed teams from Groups A, B, C, D, E, F, G and H qualify for the knockouts, Germany will face the third-placed team from Group C.
But if instead of Group H, the third-placed team from Group I qualifies, Germany would face the third-placed team from Group D, which will likely be Paraguay or Australia.
These permutations are likely to be retained so that teams from the same group are kept apart until the quarter-finals of the competition.
More than three-quarters of the 495 combinations have now become invalid.
Bosnia and Herzegovina became the first third-ranked team to confirm the match in the Round of 32, against the USA. This was because in all remaining possible combinations, the winner of Group D will face the third-placed team in Group B, which was the USA and Bosnia respectively.
Published on June 26, 2026
