Will 2026 be a very snowy year on the PCT? What we know so far

YesSierra snowpack along the Pacific Crest Trail is trending above average through mid-January, with Postholer.com reporting snow on trails at 157% of average for this date. Meanwhile, snow conditions in Oregon are somewhat below average and snow in Washington is approaching typical levels along the PCT.

Although snowpack across California is so far well below average, Postholer tracks specifically modeled snow data along the PCT corridor using NOAA’s SNODAS system. Their “snow on trails” estimate is aimed specifically at hikers and, in some cases, can be quite different from the general snowpack.

The folks at Postholer currently predict that the optimal Sierra entry date for 2026 will be significantly later than the typical June 15. Projecting forward based on current conditions, the best time to start this section could fall sometime in the last week of June.

But remember: the snowpack is dynamic and winter is still underway, so the situation could completely change in the coming months.

Historically, the Sierra Nevada receives a large portion of its snowfall between January and March, and April dumps aren’t out of the question either. Early season surpluses can disappear quickly, while modest starts can turn into extreme snow years with a single active storm cycle later in the season.

For example, the winter of 2021-22 began with heavy snowfall before giving way to a dry winter.

While snow on trails is above average, California’s overall snowpack lags behind

This winter’s above-average trail snow result comes after a series of winter storms hit California in late December and early January. Several systems brought moderate to heavy snowfall across the central and southern Sierra, helping to push snow totals above the seasonal norm across much of the PCT corridor.

Snow is more or less always part of a PCT hiker’s trip. Those traveling north often carry ice axes and microspikes throughout the Sierra and may need snow gear even earlier in the trip if starting early in the spring or hiking in a year with above-average snow.

High snowfall can wreak havoc on a PCT hike, forcing hikers to make turns to avoid dangerous conditions in the Sierra. Conversely, a dry winter can mean decreased water supplies and a higher risk of fire closures later in the summer.

As a result, most would-be hikers keep a watchful eye on the snowpack that begins as soon as the first signs of winter begin to appear, even knowing that a big storm (or lack thereof) could change the landscape entirely before the start dates.

Again, Postholer is specifically tracking snow levels at PCT elevation, which tells hikers something about whether and how the trail will be clogged with snow, but doesn’t necessarily reflect other conditions that are more related to total snowpack (such as the likelihood of braving snowmelt-fed stream fords or, at the other end of the spectrum, drought-driven wildfires).

PCT hikers in 2023, the snowiest year on record. Photo: Shelly Estabrooks

Starting today, hikers should prepare for a wide range of conditions and plan (as always) to carry an ice ax and microspikes and know how to use them. Keep checking Postholer for updates. They update their estimates every three days.

And as useless as you know this advice probably is to any worried hikers reading this, try not to worry too much. While the current level of snow on the trails is significantly above average, it is not trending as high as the record winter of 2022-2023, and even in that year, people managed to hike.

READ NEXT – I hiked the PCT in the snowiest year on record. Here’s what you need to know about navigating PCT Snow

Featured image: Shelly Estabrooks (from 2023, a record snow year on the PCT)

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