Broken blueprints: how Italy and Nigeria failed to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup

As you read this, teams are taking shape, players are trying to make it to their national teams, and coaches are scratching their heads to strategize before the biggest show in the world rolls into town.

Amid the noise, there is silence in two prominent parts of the world – countries that were part of this carnival not so long ago: Italy and Nigeria.

Italy, the more decorated of the two, missed out on their third consecutive World Cup appearance – a phenomenon dubbed an ‘apocalypse’ by local media – as the four-time World Cup winners lost 1-4 on penalties to Bosnia and Herzegovina in their final qualifying match.

The Germans offer a relevant precedent here. When Germany – then a three-time World Cup winner – was excluded from the 2004 European Championships, the country decided to take apart its existing blueprint and build a new one from scratch.

The youth program, called the Nachwuchsleistungszentrum, produced stars such as Toni Kroos, Thomas Müller, Manuel Neuer and Mario Götze. Ten years later, Götze – a product of Borussia Dortmund’s youth academy – cemented his name in immortality as Germany became world champions again.

A similar plan was devised by Italian legend Roberto Baggio in his ‘Renewing the Future’ project after the Azzurri, then defending champions, crashed out of the 2010 World Cup in the group stages.

But within seventeen months he decided to run away.

«A 900-page program was presented in December 2011, but it remained a dead letter for a year. So I drew my conclusions: I don’t like being in positions, but getting things done,» said Baggio, who resigned as president of the Italian Football Federation’s technical sector.

The years that followed continued to yield some of the fruits of Baggio’s vision.

Italy won Euro 2020, produced prominent European stars in Gianluigi Donnarumma – three-time winner with Paris Saint-Germain – Nicolò Barella, two-time Champions League runner-up, and even Sandro Tonali, who helped Newcastle United to their first trophy in almost half a century. Yet, with all of them in the team, the ship could not hold its own against Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Marcello Lippi, Italy’s last World Cup-winning coach, had once said: “A group of the best players does not necessarily make for the best team.”

Italy had developed a DNA influenced by that of Giovanni Trapattoni zona mista (an Italian football style prevalent in the 1960s and 1970s) and Arrigo Sacchi’s 4-4-2 – both based on a simple credo: defense wins titles.

That cathedral now seems to be crumbling – neglected and abandoned.

Italian players move to foreign leagues, and the last time an Italian club won the Champions League was 16 years ago – the same year Italy last won the World Cup.

In the current national team, four of the eleven regular starters – Donnarumma, Riccardo Calafiori, Tonali and Mateo Retegui – play outside Italy, while the main striker (Retegui) plays in Asia. In contrast, the 2010 World Cup-winning squad all played in Serie A.

Off the field the rot goes deeper. Gabriele Gravina clung to the presidency of the Italian Football Federation despite Italy’s failure to qualify for Qatar 2022 until he was forced to walk the plank after the 2026 qualifying debacle.

Who did Italy turn to as coach? Gennaro Gattuso – a fine player who failed to live up to expectations as a manager at nine clubs.

Was that really the best step forward for a country trying to return to the World Cup after 12 years? Questions will arise and Italy will need answers or it risks going round in circles.

For Nigeria, chaos is the only constant. Too many chefs spoiled the broth for the African giants as the Super Eagles were grounded before take-off for the second World Cup cycle in a row.

In the 2022 qualifying campaign, Nigeria replaced Gernot Rohr, who coached in the first qualifiers, with Augustine Eguavoen for the penultimate round. The team fell to Ghana on the away goals rule.

In the next World Cup cycle, the inconsistency gave way to even more drama. Several players from the team that finished second in the 2023 African Cup of Nations (AFCON) were promised real estate rewards, which were reportedly never received.

The team even boycotted the AFCON 2025 qualifier against Libya after being stranded at the airport for 12 hours.

The following month, just two days before Africa’s World Cup play-off semi-final against Gabon, the entire squad retired due to unresolved pay issues. Although the issue was eventually resolved – and Nigeria took themselves past the finish line with a 4-1 extra-time victory – the cracks were clear.

Then came the revolving door of head coaches: José Peseiro, Finidi George, Augustine Eguavoen and Eric Chelle – four men in two years. Chelle remained in charge during the final stages of qualifying, where Nigeria lost to the Democratic Republic of Congo on penalties, with the coach blaming voodoo for the exit. Speaking of analysis.

In addition to the administration quagmire, the heaviest blow came from the treatment table: Victor Osimhen’s injury prevented him from playing several matches. The former Napoli striker even fell out of favor with George, who claimed Osimhen faked his injury before missing games against South Africa and Benin.

The result: three games, no wins. Nigeria drew twice against South Africa and lost to Benin. Without Osimhen it earned only four points out of a possible 15.

His injury in the play-off final against DR Congo forced an early substitution, and Ademola Lookman followed ten minutes later, forcing Nigeria to play most of the match without two of their key strikers.

DR Congo, on the other hand, was a study in stability.

After failing to qualify for Qatar 2022, it offered a second shot at Sébastien Desabre as coach – and he repaid that trust by guiding the team to the World Cup after 52 years, beating Cameroon and Nigeria.

When the FIFA World Cup was first held in the United States in 1994, Nigeria and Italy had some of the loudest fans, with the former reaching the round of 16 and the latter making the final.

This time it will be their silence that resonates loudest – a reminder that failure in football is rarely accidental.

Published on April 23, 2026