Europe has a firm grip on the destination of the World Cup, while Messi’s Argentina is resisting

The World Cup started out as a sprawl – 48 teams, three host nations, heat, distance, noise and the promise that football’s center of gravity could tilt in an unexpected direction. Two knockout rounds later, Europe has placed six teams in the quarter-finals, with Argentina and Morocco the only survivors from outside the continent. European countries – Spain in 2010 and Germany in Brazil four years later – have only won the trophy twice outside Europe, but with France, Spain, England, Belgium, Norway and Switzerland making up three-quarters of the last eight, the chances of the continent being added to that list are now high.

This is the most European quarter-final line-up outside Europe since 1994. The round of 16 ended in tears for Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar, as the three hosts disappeared one by one.

However, the eight teams took very different paths to get here. Some came through control, some through chaos, and some through sheer stubbornness.

READ | France’s ambition faces its biggest test yet from old rival Morocco

The Argentine route has been the least serene and perhaps the most revealing. The defending champion kept having to answer uncomfortable questions. Cape Verde went deep in the round of 32 and Egypt then stared at elimination in Atlanta before Lionel Messi and his team overturned a two-goal deficit in the final stretch to win 3-2. Things didn’t always look orderly, but Argentina looked resilient. Messi’s goals continue to shape the season, but for Lionel Scaloni the greater consolation will come from the fact that his team has already experienced the kind of disarray that often ends World Cups. “We made our people suffer, even though we didn’t play a bad match,” Scaloni said after the victory over Egypt. “If we didn’t fight, we would be out.”

France has also suffered bruises. It swept Sweden aside in the round of 32, but Paraguay turned the draw into a last-16 tie by defending deep, slowing down play and forcing Didier Deschamps’ side to settle for a narrow victory through Kylian Mbappe’s late penalty. Yet France still look the strongest side in the competition, with Mbappe’s seven goals giving them the biggest lead of the tournament and Ousmane Dembélé, Bradley Barcola and Michael Olise all growing in stature.

England’s quarter-final was achieved in the most difficult setting of the lot. The 3-2 win over Mexico at the Azteca was a test of height, noise and a wall of domestic hostility. England was reduced to 10 men and still survived. Norway, the next opponent, produced one of the shockers of the tournament by eliminating Brazil, with Erling Haaland scoring twice in a 2–1 win. Under Ståle Solbakken, Norway can hurt teams both in transition and with the ball, and England’s defenders now face the most obvious individual duel of the round: containing Haaland without losing control of the spaces around him.

Belgium and Switzerland reached the last eight by controlling the pressure in very different ways. Belgium were too calm and clinical for the United States and won 4-1, despite the fuss surrounding the controversial reinstatement of Folarin Balogun and the weight of the home crowd. Switzerland, meanwhile, held their nerve better than Colombia in a goalless last-16 draw before prevailing on penalties to reach a first World Cup quarter-final in 72 years.

Spain, meanwhile, has still not conceded a goal and has dethroned Portugal with ominous efficiency.

The quarter-final line-up now features four very different tests. France against Morocco in Boston pits the deepest team in the tournament against the most challenging underdog. Spain against Belgium in California feels like a battle between a team that monopolizes the ball and a team that can cut through space quickly. England’s match against Norway in Miami could hinge on whether England can contain Haaland and still impose their own rhythm. Argentina vs Switzerland offers Messi another knockout maze against a side that rarely loses its form or composure.

The quarter-finals are a testament to where this World Cup has evolved. What started as a sprawling global carnival has grown into a European-dominated group, with Argentina and Morocco having to resist the pull.

Published on July 8, 2026